In May 2018 the Conference Best estimate Modelling Plus Uncertainties in Safety Analyses (BEPU 2018) was held in Lucca Italy. More than 200 papers were presented addressing newest achievements in development and application of BEPU methods. The conference demonstrated that since the last similar conference in 2004 significant development occurred in BEPU area; however, the work was mainly concentrated on uncertainty evaluation methodologies rather than on the whole BEPU process. The BEPU2018 conference demonstrated that:
- BEPU applications in licensing are limited and their increase is foreseen to be slow;
- there is a need for comprehensive guidelines for use of BEPU technologies, and the availability of mature tools was questioned;
- consistency in all steps of BEPU needs to be ensured, however it was identified that there is a need to reduce the shortcuts in BEPU applications and to focus on exploitation of the full BEPU process;
- experimental data is central to the BEPU processes and methodologies, thus the use the available of experimental data in an efficient and consistent way is required; and
- BEPU is at first a methodology that increases the knowledge and understanding of uncertainties and biases embedded in any deterministic safety analysis.
Considering these outcomes of the BEPU 2018 conference there is a need to revisit the identified problems in relatively short time frame. Therefore, planning of the follow-up conference was initiated.
We like to invite you to participate in the BEPU 2020 which will be held in the beautiful Sicily and to submit papers addressing the issues identified above. Especially, we would like to encourage regulatory bodies and the industry to contribute papers addressing the problems of BEPU applications and present thoughts on how to enhance the BEPU process to be an inherent part of licensing and plant evaluation activities.